Syria - what next?

So, now it started boiling in Syria. Made-up demonstrations and excessive media surveillance on non-existing events have led to a massive explosion of shootings, from both opponent's and regim's side, demonstrations, even those from both sides and now even published, non-official interference from USA's side. The question that the states and all other western countries should ask themselfes is: what do they want to achieve by bringing down a country like Syria? What are they winning by destroying one of the last stable dictatorships of the middle-east?

So many people are talking about how all people need democracy NOW. That all people have the right to choose and elect their own leadership just like Europe, USA, Russia. They are comparing the middle-east with the fall of Sovjet, it's movement towards democracy. But, can you really compare the fall of the Egyptian government and dictatorship with the fall of the Berlin wall? Can you compare the staged demonstrations to the great monday demonstrations in Eastern Germany (GDR) in 1989? I do not believe you can.

There are two reasons why I do not believe in these comparisons:

At first the demonstrations back in the late 80s were a great public movement defying all government interaction. Thousands and even millions of people were demonstrating against the rulership of their government and the pressure of the russian supremacy. It was a movement started by the people for the people. And this is why it became so intense. This movement might be compared to Egypt, but the question that follows is: what then? What will happen afterwards?

In Germany, western Germany (BRD) took over and democracy followed. I will leave all economic problems that followed out of sight this time. In Egypt there is no history of democracy. The country was governed by a king or a colonial power. Borders were drawn with a ruler without any consideration of clans, ethnic groups, or similar. You can already see today what happens: as military is in charge right now, demonstrators that are identified from videos are imprisoned and tortured. Religion becomes more important and devides big parts of the people. A lot of people believe it will get better after elections in September, however I am not so sure. I believe that democracy has to be taught and learned until it is possible to introduce it to a country and its people. Hopefully Egypt will receive some help to educate its people, otherwise the risk for a civil war is impending.

The second is foreign countries' interest in middle-east countries' natural assets and military impact in the region. Why would countries like USA otherwise be interested in the well-being of Syria, Egypt or Lybia? Why would they take any possible opportunity to engage in an interior conflict? This is the second, but even bigger difference between the movement in the eastern parts of Europe then and the middle-east now.

This great interest of so many different parties in these countries' internal affairs will, at the end, lead to an earthshaking experience that will make everyone wish that it never happened. An unstable middle-east region will not only push up petrol prices, produce even more refugees, raise poverty, but could even lead to a war over boundaries. Syria, Lebanon, Irak, Iran, ..... and at the end.... Israel. I look with fear at the development of Syrian protests and hope that no one forgets what's at stake here. When USA supports opposing groups in Syria with money and arms, when UN drop bombs in Lybia and put arms in opponents hands, do they know what will follow? Do they know that there will be some control over the development in those countries or will they be left on their own? I hope all of this is worth its price!